The First Three Quarters Of China's Steel Industry Analysis Review And Forecast

The operating characteristics of China's steel industry in the first three quarters showed that demand was steadily declining, steel production continued to grow, and the growth rate continued to decline. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the national output of pig iron, crude steel and steel was 671.07 million tons, 80589 million tons and 1.003.35 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, an increase of 2.0% and an increase of 4.6%, respectively. They were 5.1, 2.5 and 1.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

In quarterly terms, the output of crude steel in the first quarter increased by 16% year-on-year, the second quarter increased by 8% year-on-year, and the third quarter fell by 15% year-on-year. Among them, in September, the national daily output of crude steel was 2.4583 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.45%, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, and a decrease of 24.6% from the peak in April, which was the lowest value in the past three years. The effect of the national production restriction policy has appeared. According to data from the World Steel Association (WSA), from January to August, global crude steel production was 1.322 billion tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year; after excluding mainland China, the crude steel output of other countries and regions in the world was 589 million tons, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year. The growth rate was 12.8 percentage points faster than that of China; China’s crude steel production accounted for 55.45% of the world’s total, a year-on-year decrease of 2.81 percentage points.

　　 The global economy has recovered, steel exports have increased, while imports have decreased. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to September, the country exported 53.02 million tons of steel products, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. Among them, exports fell for three consecutive months from July to September, and exported 4.92 million tons in September, down 2.6% from the previous month. , A decrease of 38.3% from the highest value in April (7.99 million tons); 10.72 million tons of imported steel products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%; and imports of iron ore of 841.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%.

　　 Due to strong international market demand and rising commodity prices, steel import and export prices have also risen sharply. From January to September, the average steel export price was US$1113.6/ton, up 35.6% year-on-year; the average import price was US$1263.6/ton, up 55.4% year-on-year.

　　 The market fluctuates greatly, and the prices of raw fuel materials and steel have gradually increased, and the overall level is higher than last year. According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, the prices of the main raw materials used in steel production have risen sharply. From January to September, the average price of imported fine ore was US$171.67/ton, an increase of 72.64% year-on-year, the price of coking coal increased by 57.07% year-on-year, the price of coke increased 56.88% year-on-year, and the price of scrap steel increased 36.48% year-on-year.

　　 From January to September, the average China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 143.26 points, a year-on-year increase of 39.85%. From a monthly perspective, the increase continued from January to April, the peak fell from May to June, and it rebounded from July to September. Among them, the price of long products increased by 37.07%, and the price of flat products increased by 43.56%. The market for flat products was better than that of long products. According to data released by CRU (British Commodity Research Institute), from January to September, international steel prices increased by an average of 94.7% year-on-year, which was greater than the domestic price. Among them, the price of long products rose by 57.0% and the price of steel plates rose by 115.4%.　　

　　 Uncertainties in the international environment have increased, and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has continued to recover, and the demand for steel in the international market has also continued to recover. According to the short-term forecast issued by the World Steel Association in October, in 2021, global steel demand will continue to grow by 4.5% to 1,855.4 million tons; in 2022, it will continue to grow by 2.2% to 1,896.4 million tons. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP grew by 9.8% in the first three quarters, and is expected to reach over 8% this year; industrial added value increased by 11.8% year-on-year, social fixed asset investment increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and real estate development investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year. The overall economy of our country has maintained a recovery trend, structural adjustment has been steadily advanced, and quality and efficiency have been steadily improved. However, it should also be noted that the current trend of the epidemic situation and the economic recovery process in various countries are divided, various risks and challenges in the external environment have increased, the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven, and the growth of steel demand and exports are facing uncertainties.

　　 The prices of resources and energy have risen sharply, making it more difficult for companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Since the second half of the year, under the influence of various measures, the price of iron ore has fallen sharply, currently fluctuating around US$120/ton, but still at a high level. At the same time, the supply-demand relationship between coal and coke is tight, and prices have risen sharply and rapidly. Especially since September, due to the tight power supply, steel companies have cut production and stopped production more, and corporate costs will increase significantly. The pressure of rising costs is difficult to change in the short term, and the profitability of steel companies is facing a downward trend.

　　 This year is the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The task of promoting the steel industry to achieve a good start throughout the year is very arduous. In particular, key tasks such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, overcapacity reduction, output reduction, and resource protection have all been paid close attention to by the entire industry and must be actively promoted. In the next stage, the steel industry will thoroughly study and resolutely implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, accurately grasp the new development stage, thoroughly implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and continuously improve domestic steel products in accordance with the requirements of national industrial policies. The dynamic adaptability of supply and demand, continue to focus on the fundamental task of comprehensively improving the industrial foundation and the level of the industrial chain, adhere to the two development themes of green development and intelligent manufacturing, and focus on solving the pain points of the three major industries, controlling capacity expansion, promoting industrial concentration, To ensure the safety of resources, continue to promote the process of internationalization, and promote the high-quality development of the steel industry to make new progress.