Global “steel demand” is expected to rebound slightly to 1.772 billion tons next year

The World Steel Association released the latest version of its short-term (2024-2025) steel demand forecast report. The report pointed out that global steel demand will further decline by 0.9% in 2024 to 1.751 billion tons. It is expected that after three consecutive years of decline in steel demand, global steel demand will rebound by 1.2% in 2025 and will reach 1.772 billion tons.

The World Steel Association predicts that steel demand in China and most major developed economies will decline significantly in 2024. In sharp contrast, India will maintain strong growth momentum. From 2024 to 2025, India's steel demand is expected to grow significantly. In 2024, steel demand will rebound in most other major developing economies. Although challenging factors still exist, the World Steel Association is cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will enter a stage of broad-based moderate growth in 2025.

Specifically, the World Steel Association predicts that the continued downturn in China's real estate industry will continue to affect its steel demand, which is expected to drop by 3.0% in 2024 and further drop to 1.0% in 2025. In addition, steel demand in developing countries (excluding China) will grow by 3.5% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. As far as the construction industry is concerned, the housing construction sector will remain weak in most major markets in 2024, continuing to weigh on steel demand growth, especially in key regions such as China, the United States, the European Union, Japan and South Korea. As financing conditions ease, the World Steel Association expects a substantial recovery in the residential construction industry (EU, US and South Korea) from 2025 onwards.

As far as the automotive industry is concerned, the World Steel Association expects that after major automotive producing countries achieved significant double-digit growth in 2023, the industry's growth will slow down significantly in 2024. Forecasts for the industry's light vehicle production are being revised downwards across the board amid growing concerns about rising inventories and a slowdown in pure electric vehicle sales in key markets. The shift contrasts with last year's strong performance and highlights the industry's vulnerability to changing market conditions and potential challenges ahead. Against this background, the World Steel Association predicts that global light vehicle production will grow slowly in 2025.